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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sunday, June 1, 2014)
The Sunday program starts out a little chalky (we think) but offers some potentially good wagering value as the day goes on.
The opener, a maiden special weight sprint, finds #4 American Pride listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite. The Closing Argument colt burned money in a pair of races last summer before being turned but has trained sharply for his return for Baffert and could easily be a better type this time around. #3 Steep N Deep, a first timer from the Yakteen barn, has shown ability in the morning and represents a little bit of stranger danger. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
#5 Coo Cachoo earned as strong figure beating $8,000 foes last month and looks very much like the one to beat on the one-level raise in the second race. However, he appears to be a need-the-lead type and with #6 Unstopper Topper stretching out after a pair of sprints he may have to work hard to make the running. At 6/5 on the morning line Coo Cachoo offers little in the way of value, and there are more attractive opportunities later on. You may consider using the Heap-trained gelding as a rolling exotic single, try to beat him by spreading the race, or better yet simply sit it out.
The third race finds another short priced favorite, #4 L T Reckless, listed at 8/5 on the morning line and she could easily go lower. First off the claim for Diodoro (29% with this maneuver), the daughter of Henny Hughes crushed a softer field in good style and today shortens to six furlongs, a distance that should suit her best. She looks like the controlling speed and only the Phoenix shipper #3 Lazy Daisy May (blinkers off) has shown any willingness to finish.
The Pick-4 begins in the fourth race. Debuting #3 Little Miss S has shown plenty of speed in the morning for Baffert and the daughter of Candy Ride looks cranked up for a big run first crack out of the box. We’ll double the race while also including #8 Denotation, a speed/fade play from the Callaghan barn (strong with second-timers) and likely to stick much better today from her comfortable outside post at this abbreviated sprint distance.
#6 Chips All In returns to sprinting today and looks very much like the one to beat in the featured Sire Lure Stakes, carded as the fifth race on the program. The Mullins-trained horse has winning form down the hill and doesn’t have Obviously to worry about today. Talamo should have him in an ideal stalking position in a field without a whole of early speed. #3 Pure Tactics has been chasing Sweep Swap lately but should go better against this slightly softer lineup. The O’Neill-trained horse may be the most dangerous of the closing types and should benefit from the switch to Smith.
The sixth race is a deep and competitive starter’s allowance affair with a number of logical contenders. We’re intrigued by the comebacking #6 Yodel Up a Storm, away since Del Mar (where she ran two excellent races) and working quite well at San Luis Rey Downs for Sadler (excellent with layoff runners). She returns protected and lands hot-riding Trujillo, so we’re expecting a major effort from the daughter of Swiss Yodeler. You should also consider in your rolling exotics #8 Fly to Freedom, a recent sharp comeback maiden claiming winner from the Miller barn, and #9 Goodbye Rosalina, a smart debut winner in March with a strong speed figure for Glatt and with a recent bullet workout at Pomona to have her on edge.
The seventh race is a fair maiden special weight turf miler and seems like an ideal spot for #4 Sunny Kat to earn his diploma. An okay fourth with some trouble in a recent sprint in his first start since July, the son of Kitten’s Joy should benefit greatly from the run and can be along in time under Smith. #9 A Red Tie Day has a couple of strong recent speed figures and if he improves at all in his first try on turf the Ellis-trained colt will be the one to fear most.
We were quite impressed with the comeback maiden win by #3 Chasintheaces last month and we’re expecting the Baffert-trained colt to win right back in the eighth race, an entry-level allowance sprint. The son of Indian Charlie took the heat and then came away in the lane like a nice prospect, and because he’s trained very well since that race we’re expecting another forward move. He’s hooking more early zip today but should be able to deal with it. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single in our book.
The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claimer requiring a spread; use as many as you can afford to. #2 Aftermarketshare was pulled up early in a turf sprint vs. straight maidens last month; he’s come back to work well and drops drastically in class so were expecting him to handle this assignment. #7 Super Reagan earned an okay number when fourth in his only outing last November in maiden special weight company; he returns cheap so there’s a question mark with this lightly-raced gelding. #10 Warren’s Sunny Boy flashed good zip down the hill vs. much tougher before fading; he figures to stick a whole lot better in this league. These are the three we’ll include in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.