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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thu., March 6, 2014)
Big ‘Cap week begins with a decent Thursday program that offers a couple of rolling exotic single possibilities.
In the opener, #2 Fifteen Black drops into a high priced claimer for the first time and his kind of speed might be very effective at this level. He’s a second-off-a-layoff play for Bonde, who has excellent stats with this maneuver, so we’re expecting the son of Bertrando to move forward today. #6 Seeking Asylum has been nothing but a money burner in his last three starts and certainly isn’t one to trust, but he’s drawn comfortably outside, retains Bejarano, and should be rolling in the final furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
The second half of the early daily double attracted only five runners. #2 Oneandonlyloveman crushed a $16,000 field last month in good style and seems quite capable of repeating on the raise for Bonde. Bejarano should have him on or near the lead throughout. #3 Candiz takes a significant class drop despite rising speed figures and his late-running style should be complimented by this extended sprint trip. He gets a favorable jockey switch to Baze and seems to be working well enough at Los Alamitos.
The Pick-6 begins with the third race. #6 Just Dancing is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and probably will go lower, so the Mitchell-trained mare likely won’t offer any value, but a repeat of her last race – a nearly seven length romp vs. bottom rung maiden claimers – likely will be good enough for a repeat score. Talamo rides her back and should have her in a striking position just off what figures to be a slow pace.
The fourth race is an abbreviated starter’s allowance sprint and we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics. #1 Oh Daddy Oh is the quickest of the quick and shortens up a half furlong while tackling an easier field. Talamo will try to hold him together in the final furlong. #4 Southern Sunrise may settle into a stalking position today and try to pounce late; the Puype-trained gelding has been away since September but he’s worked well enough to be fit and ready and his back numbers would be more than good enough to win.
#3 Kozani gets ideal conditions in the fifth race, a downhill turf sprint for maiden 3-year-olds. The son of Exchange Rate, freshened since late December when he finished a solid second in a turf miler, retains Nakatani, has worked quite well of late, and seems likely to produce another forward move. There’s not that much early speed signed on, so we anticipate the Sadler-trained colt to be within striking range throughout. We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
With the scratching of heavy morning line favorite #8 Our Dream Queen, the sixth race, a straight maiden sprint for fillies and mares, came up remarkably light. #5 More Complexity has a distinct edge in the speed figure department and seems the logical choice, though she’s been vulnerable in the final furlong in all four of her previous outings. #6 Copperopolis, away since December of 2012, has trained pretty well for Jones and retains Talamo; she might be a better type this time around. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic play without a high degree of confidence.
The featured seventh race is a nine furlong conditioned allowance event on grass that drew a very competitive eight runner field. #3 Ever Rider is getting acclimated for Puype and should produce another forward move; he’s unproven on grass but there may be some price value here at his 8-1 morning line odds so we’ll toss him in. #3 Artic North has rising speed figures for Miller and is exiting a pair of graded stakes races, so he’s a major contender on all fronts. Talamo stays aboard. #6 Monastic will be the controlling speed if he can outrun Ever Rider early; Stevens will try to nurse him along and the Proctor-trained gelding is long overdue for a win. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but you should feel free to spread even deeper if you can afford to.
The nightcap should boil down to #1 Yesterday Sings and #10 Warrenspoweroflove; we’ll use both in rolling exotic play. Yesterday Sings represents inside speed with blinkers being added and should move forward in just her third career start. She’s strong in the speed figure department and seems the likely favorite. Warrenspoweroflove has the benefit of an outside draw and will greatly appreciate this extended sprint distance; the Lewis-trained filly retains Baze and appears clearly the most dangerous of the closing types.