Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Jan. 12, 2014)

The Sunday opener is a mid-grade claiming turf miler that looks likely to be won by #5 Trelawny. The Mullins-trained gelding stretches out to a more suitable trip over a course he’s been known to like and most likely will draft into an ideal second-flight position. Baze should have him along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

The second race offers a field of five, two of which come from the Mullins barn. #4 Full Consent just won a restricted $25,000 claimer in game style and another forward move is likely by this lightly-raced gelding. He’s the Mullins we’ll prefer on top but for rolling exotic purposes we’ll also toss in #5 Gallant Charm, a genuine and consistent Avila-trained gelding with a prior win over the course. Talamo will have him doing his best work in the final furlong.

#4 Moon Ride crushed a weak maiden claiming field across town last month and if her improvement continues the daughter of Candy Ride looks capable of winning right back in the third race. There switch to turf shouldn’t be an issue. #6 Cavalletta is re-equipped with blinkers and is racing in good form, but her 1-for-28 record in hard to ignore. You can use her on a ticket or two for insurance.

#7 One Magical Girl lost a toughie against bottom-rung distaff sprinters at Hollywood Park last month but a similar effort today should be more than good enough to get her back on the winning track in the fourth race. She likes to win races and likes this track. #8 J Louie is another with a prior win over this track and should be prominent throughout.

We liked the way #8 Katie’s Garden won at Hollywood Park last month and we’re expecting another forward move in the fifth race, a first-level allowance race for fillies and mares. She looks most comfortable as a late-running sprinter so this six and one-half furlong trip should be perfect for her style. #2 Peppy Dolly also likes to settle and make a run and is worth using in the exotics, along with #7 Splendid Fortune, who has that blinkers-off angle working for her.

The sixth race, a downhill turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares, seems like an ideal spot for #7 Velvet Mesquite, a debut winner under identical conditions last month. The Heap-trained filly has worked nicely since that race and this class hike appears well within her range. #4 Cayanna figures to be late threat, though she doesn’t usually get there. #6 J and S Express, second in her last pair, is another that should be rolling late and won’t have to improve much to at least hit the board.

The seventh race is a contentious edition of the Paseana Stakes for middle distance fillies and mares. #5 Warren’s Veneda is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track and we’re expecting her to return to top form. Talamo should have her within range throughout. #4 Golden Production is moving up the ladder following a pair of sharp scores and gets tested for a bit of class today. Talamo obviously opted for Warren’s Veneda but the Miller-trained mare still deserves serious consideration. #6 Stanwyck was a graded stakes winner in New York and won her only start on this track way back in October of 2012. She make be the most dangerous of the closers.

The eighth race is a downhill turf sprint that offers a rematch between #5 Tripski and #8 El Mirage King, one-two finishers in a solid grass sprint at Hollywood Park last month. Both have trained well since that race and both should fire big shots once again. Tripski gets a very slight edge but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

#4 Moscato Girl seems like a standout in the nightcap, a maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies. She drops into for a tag for the first time, continues to train well, has better than par speed figures for this level and retains Bejarano. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and single in our book.