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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., Jan. 10, 2014)
The Friday program begins with a five-runner field that doesn’t offer much in the way of value. #1 She’s a Go Girl represents inside speed and is in good form, so she’s the one to beat. #3 Coco de Carchy plummets in class and has figures that make her a major player. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
The second race has only six starters but a case can be made for virtually every one of them. #6 Pressure Time is a second-time starter from the Mullins barn and is likely much better than his sixth place debut performances gives him credit for. The Freespool gelding continues to train well, lands the comfortable outside post, and switches to the main track. We’ll see what he can do under these conditions. #1 Odin has shown enough in the morning to indicate he has enough ability to act with these, while #4 Astascaderan has put together a strong work tab at Hollywood Park and seems plenty fit. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but you may not be safe unless you buy the race.
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. #5 Stole a Kiss takes blinkers off (again) and drops into a realistic spot after being overmatched in a pair of recent stakes events. Talamo stays aboard and should have this Puype-trained filly doing her best in the final furlong. #4 Water Issues has improving numbers and ran well two-turning on turf across town. She’s the likely choice and one to beat.
We’ll double the fourth race, a mid-grade claiming sprint that is restricted to non-winners of three. #6 Whipstock moves up from the $8,000 ranks but has been facing open company, so this class hike is a mirage. The Bonde-trained gelding has numbers that make him a solid fit and Stra gets along just fine with him. With a prior win over this track, the veteran Mineshaft gelding should be hard to beat. We’ll also use #4 Judge Carr, a Hess re-claim and another with good form over this conventional dirt surface. A repeat of his race – a nice win against a slightly lesser field – makes him the one to fear most.
The fifth race is a downhill turf dash that marks the return of #6 Jet Warrior, a debut winner last May at Hollywood Park for Hollendorfer. Whether or not he can duplicate that performance on grass remains to be seen, but he’s trained like he’s fit and ready and is a solid fit in the speed figure department. #1 Midnight Casanova is a route-to-sprint play for new trainer Chew after graduating at the bottom in November. He’s worked quite well since and probably has further improvement in him. We’ll prefer ‘Warrior on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
Low-level maiden claimers go long on the main track in the sixth race and there’s not much to trust. #8 Citron Kid tries conventional dirt for the first time while dropping to his lowest level and will beat this field if he can handle the switch in surface. He gets blinkers and Bejarano, so the ball’s in his court. #7 Boss of Me has some back figures that make him a factor, though he’s as one-paced as it gets.
The featured seventh race, a first-level allowance grassy affair for fillies and mares, appears to be made to order for #7 Level Headed. The Proctor-trained mare is kind of a grinder and should appreciate the 10-furlong trip, and with improving speed figures we’re expecting her to produce another forward move. #8 Scooter Bird comes from way out of it and is another that should enjoy the distance; the main concern with her is the lack of success (5 starts, one third) over this course.
The nightcap is an abbreviated maiden claiming sprint that features three main players. #4 Tim’s Go Girl has worked like she has some speed and goes for a clever outfit; we’ll be surprised if the daughter of Borrego isn’t a strong factor under P. Val. #2 Kahala chased tougher in her debut and has every right to improve off that race after showing a bit of spark in a recent workout. #6 Jogget is another class dropper with some early speed and should stick much better in this league.