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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Oct. 27, 2013)
A huge $88,698 Pick-6 carryover makes the Sunday program a “must play” for handicappers. It’s a tough sequence, though, and it would be shocking to see it carry over again.
The opener is a tough 10-furlong entry-level turf affair that has several legitimate contenders. #4 Segway didn’t have the clearest of runs in his recent comeback and under the circumstance did well to finish as close as he did (fourth, beaten a length). He should be a bit sharper today and this 10-furlong trip should be of benefit as well. #2 Stoney Fleece is solid in the speed figure department and should be right there. We’ll prefer Segway on top but you may feel the need the use a few more in your rolling exotics.
In the second race, #1 Arethusa is improving with racing and we’re expecting another major forward move. She switches to Bejarano, and the daughter of A.P. Indy looks capable of producing the last run in a small field of juvenile fillies. We’ll use her as a rolling exotic single.
#3 Tappingintherain and #6 The Magic Stone exit the same race, a better-than-par sprint last month, and both should verify the strength of that race in today’s third. The former switches to Stevens and gets an extra half furlong to work with today, so we’ll give her a very slight edge, although both should be included in rolling exotic play.
The fourth race kicks off the Pick-6; it’s another tough turf affair that has several capable of winning. #7 Horizontlyspeakin exits a very live race – the first two finishers already have come back to win – and the Sadler-trained gelding could inherit his favorite role as the controlling speed. Leave him alone early and he may never look back. #4 Jules Journey has been away since March and might need a race, but he likes this turf course and can turn it on late. The recent workouts look decent enough. These are the two we’ll be using but again, go deeper if you feel the need.
#1 Tiz the Truth was considered a something of a Derby prospect last winter; he had to be stopped on but apparently has returned better than ever. The Baffert-trained colt demolished an entry-level allowance field over this track last month with a monster speed figure, and anything close to that effort today will be good enough for a repeat in today’s fifth race. #2 Gonna Fly Now stretches out for the first time – he’s bred to stay at least a mile – and exits a couple of hot graded stakes sprints. This group should be well within his range if he can project his one-turn form at this trip.
The sixth race is a downhill turf raffle for two year olds; pretty much anything goes here. #7 Taelyns Prince has shown he can run some and handle turf as well; he’s been away since July but should be a better type off the bench and the works for Mullins indicate fitness. #11 Global View was given a run in his debut at Del Mar and should be more serious today. The son of Galileo figures to improve a ton on grass, though his best stuff eventually figures to be over a route of ground.
The seventh race is a difficult claiming sprint for juvenile fillies; several in here have a legitimate look. #4 Take One won at first asking for $62,500 in fairly decent fashion; she shows up today for $32,000 and is a strong fit on speed figures. The main concern is that Kitchingman apparently is willing to lose her. #7 Tookmebysurprise broke her maiden for $32,000 and then won a starter’s allowance race over this track earlier this month with an okay figure. She’s realistically spotted once again. #8 Golden Celestial has improving numbers for Miller, retains Nakatani, and should be doing her best work late.
Today’s feature, the Lure Stakes for older turf milers, is yet another event that has several legitimate contender. #5 Willyconker has been meeting Breeders’ Cup-type competition lately without success; this is a considerably easier task and the veteran gelding always has liked this Santa Anita turf course. #6 El Commodore is a tough veteran gelding and should get back on the beam after failing over conventional dirt at Pomona. He’s been training especially well of late for Machowsky. These are the two we’ll prefer but nothing would surprise us.
Juvenile maiden claimers complete the card in the ninth race. #6 Market Notes continues to make progress in the speed figure department and drops to the maiden $30,000 level today. In the money in all three of his career starts, the Conlon-trained colt seems fairly reliable. #4 Znelle, second off the claim for Sadler, is slow on numbers but seems like trier and is in good hands. He may have a bit of improvement in him. Toss in anybody else that catches your eye.