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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., Oct. 11, 2013)
A better than average nine race program offers a number of attractive rolling exotic wagering opportunities.
The opener is a middle distance claimer that contains only six runners. #7 Cook Inlet returns from Penn National where he had decent form and the Kitchingman-trained gelding should act with these. We’ll put him very slightly on top over #1 Big Wags (likes this track and exits a tough starter’s allowance race) and #5 Smokin’ Cat (back at his claim level and was a winner over similar at Del Mar). Use all three in your rolling exotics or simply pass the race.
We liked #5 Behind the Bossman last week and he disappointed; in today’s second race he drops a notch and stretches out to a distance we expect him to handle. However, the Mullins-trained gelding is 6/5 on the morning line so there’s not too much we can do with him.
#8 Kill Shot has much in his favor in the third race, a maiden sprint for older runners. He returns for Headley with a solid work tab and his numbers from last summer would bury this group. He looks very much like a short priced rolling exotic single.
The Pick-6 kicks off in the fourth race; there’s no carryover today but it still might be worth playing. This downhill turf slalom looks like it has two main contenders. #9 Blues and Silvers always shows excellent speed two-turning but today probably will draft into a stalking position. She’s won from off the pace in the past, so this trip might very much be to her liking. She’s also back with Stevens, who won on her two races back. #1 Ricspretentiousgal won two-turning on the front end at Del Mar and was claimed for $50,000 by Sadler; she can sprint just as well and should inherit a good pace prompting position outside.
The fifth race is a bottom-rung maiden claimer and probably requires a major spread. The three that we’re sure to include are #1 Grand Gambler (fit on figures and should show good speed from the rail); #4 Atomic Rule (exits a strong race at Pomona while appearing to be improving) and #12 Alsace (good look off his strong runner-up try two races back). Use as many as any you can afford to.
A tough middle distance turf affair restricted to 3-year-olds ushers in the late Pick-4 in the sixth race. #6 This One’s for Mel has been protected lately but surfaces for a high priced tag today and seems well placed for a major effort. A mile is his limit but in this league we’re expecting that he’ll get the trip. #2 He’s Not too Shaby stretches out to two-turns for the first time and on pedigree he should be able to handle the extra ground. He’ll be in the firing line throughout. These are the two we’ll be using; you may find the need to toss in a couple more.
The seventh race is an extended sprint for mid-grade claiming fillies and mares and is quite contentious. #8 Addendum gets a very slight nod; the Cerin-trained distaffer won a nice starter’s allowance race at Pomona recently and seems to have the perfect style for seven furlongs. #2 Rossi Reserve exits the same race – she was a close second after being worn down late – and rates a chance right back. Due to her low profile connections, she’ll be a square price. #3 Appealing Resume knows where the wire is (11-for-35) and won from a similar bunch at Del Mar in late August. She returns with Bejarano and will be doing her best work late.
Today’s feature race is a nine furlong first-level allowance turf affair. #2 Mum’s Trucker appears to offer strong value at 7/2 on the morning line; the Miller-trained filly exits a series of strong sprints but this trip is well within her range and in a field without a whole lot of early speed she should be comfortably placed throughout. We’re making her a rolling exotic single and straight play.
The nightcap is a maiden claiming dash for juvenile fillies and our second single in the Pick-6 sequence will be #1 Rushomatic. A solid runner-up in her debut at Pomona, the Sadler-trained filly has worked nicely since that race and should use the rail to good advantage in this abbreviated sprint. She’s 4-1 on the morning line and that’s just fine with us.