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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thu., Oct. 10, 2013)
Pick-6 players are in heaven today; a double carryover of $575,466 could lead to a pool in excess of $3 million when all the ballots are tabulated.
In the opener, #8 Tornado Allie drops below her claim level and looks the best of a fairly contentious field. She’s winless in five starts over this track but the Puype-trained filly continues to work well and should fire a good shot. #2 Miz Wounded Knee beat a bottom-rung group at Del Mar with a career top speed figure and if she can duplicate that effort over conventional dirt she’ll be dangerous right back. #5 Pure Blush is a first-off-the-claim for Dollase (solid 22%) and seems better than her last shows. She’s always preferred this track.
The second race pretty much boils down to #5 Scherzinger and #2 All On the Table. We’ll prefer the former; the Hollendorfer-trained filly looked good graduating at Del Mar and her speed figures continue to rise. Smith will have rolling late. All On the Table has a bit more tactical speed than her chief rival and can handle any type of surface. She’s also very solid in the speed figure department. Tough call.
The Pick-6 begins with the third race. This looks like a rematch of the August 31 affair at Del Mar with #5 Husband’s Folly and #7 Danderek getting together again and both should be used in rolling exotics. Danderek may benefit from the shortened trip – today’s race is a flat mile as opposed to nine furlongs – and he should draft into an ideal pace prompting position. He’s back with Bejarano, who won on him two races back, but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not a lot we can do with him (except maybe single him which we really don’t want to do). Husband’s Folly has run well over this course in the past and can pack a pretty strong late kick when he’s feeling up to it. We wouldn’t put it past him to win right back.
Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint six and one-half furlongs in the fourth race. #4 Goodhumorgirl looks fairly logical; she was nosed out in a similar spot at Pomona last month while more than six clear of the rest and if she can duplicate that performance on the big track she’ll be hard to deny. Stranger danger comes in the form of #7 For Emma, a first timer from the clever Peter Miller barn. She’s done more than enough in the morning to indicate she can act at this level and offers plenty of value at 6-1 on the morning line.
The fifth race may require a bit of a spread. #8 Lilly’s Perfect looked quite good winning her last pair at Del Mar in late August and was re-claimed by Mulhall, always a positive sign. The veteran mare is winless in five starts over the local lawn but has run well here in the past and has held her form in the morning with a healthy work pattern. Bejarano fits her perfectly. However, there’s a couple of others in here worth considering as well; #6 Miss Well Molded has been chasing much tougher and could come to life in this league, while #11 Town Belle, though poorly drawn, remains well above her claim level for Mullins in a sign of confidence and switches to Gomez. She’s worth tossing in at 6-1 on the morning line.
The sixth race is an above average maiden router and contains two promising Baffert runners. #4 Secretsatmidnight has been very impressive in the morning while gearing up for just his second career start (and his first since January) and this son of Midnight Lute could turn out to more than just decent. He ran better than the line will show when a closing fourth in a hot race and has trained like he’ll be right at home over a distance of ground. Can we get 6-1 right now? His barn mate #8 Cat Burglar has the benefit of a recent race; he was fifth sprinting at Del Mar but has trained like a distance type and should improve a ton today. Baffert is 28% with second time starters, a stat that applies to both of his runners. #3 Scarly Charly is bred to run long (Friends Lake) and finally gets his chance. It would be tough not to include him somewhere at least on a backup ticket.
The featured seventh race marks the return of the once promising #4 Segway. Good enough to win his debut (so we know he can fire fresh), the Mandella-trained son of Giant’s Causeway has worked like he’s fit enough and must be used. Both #2 Shadow Runner and #8 Lumberyard Jack have the benefit of recent races and both have numbers that are better than par for the level. Lumberyard Jack is especially fond of the Santa Anita turf course.
The finale brings out older maiden claiming fillies and mares and there are three main contenders. #4 Make More Money has solid speed figures for Mullins and appears strictly the one to beat. She improved her Colorado form when a good runner-up at Del Mar and has trained well since; she gets a break in the weights today and that could make the winning difference. #1 Truly Beautiful is a dangerous comebacker from Marty Jones’s barn; she’s plenty quick and could be a stronger type this time around. #11 Full of Spice continues to train better than your typical maiden claimer and is worth another look for Miller. She switches to Gomez and might be troublesome with a clean break.