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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., Oct. 4, 2013)
A solid eight-race program begins with a maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. #4 Tizhardtoget, away since May, surfaces for a tag and appears to be training well enough to beat this field. She earned decent speed figures earlier this year when chasing tougher. #6 Elusive Luci had good speed before fading vs. straight maidens at Del Mar; she figures to stick a whole lot better in this league.
#3 Purim’s Star seems well spotted for a big run in the second race, a downhill turf dash for fillies and mares. Away since May, the Tom Proctor-trained filly has won three of four over this course and has trained like she’s dead fit and ready to fire. We like her over past classer #4 In the Stars, who might be prepping for longer.
In the third race, #1 Behind the Bossman is a first-off-the-claim for Mullins and you know how well this barn does with this maneuver. The Corinthian colt continues to train like a decent type and if he can avoid trouble from the rail he should be able to dominate this high priced maiden claiming field. We like him as a rolling exotic single.
The fourth race, a bottom rung claimer for fillies and mares, is a mess. We’ll put #3 Eltoninadress on top without any great conviction; the Taylor-trained filly comes off a solid runner-up try vs. similar at Del Mar and ran decently over this track in the one start that she had. It’s either her, or anybody, so big ticket rolling exotic players might choose to spread this race.
A contentious field of turf sprinting fillies and mares ushers in the Pick-4 and this is another race you may choose to spread. We’ll go three deep using #1 Kilted Tilt (lightly-raced, very quick, and training well for Sadler); #3 Sydney’s Darling (first off the claim for Sherman and a solid fit on figures) and #4 Noise of the Crowd (claimed in her last pair, retains Bejarano and should draft into a good stalking position).
We don’t really have a great opinion in the sixth race other than #7 Lucky Student and she might be a hard one to trust as a nine-race maiden. However, the Truman-trained filly exits a strong race at Del Mar (career top speed figure) and is raised to straight maiden company in a sign of confidence. Maybe today will be her day.
We’ll use two in the featured seventh race while preferring #5 Cinco de Mario on top. The Candy Ride gelding needs patient handling and if he gets that kind of ride today he should be along in time. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics #1 Sinfully, third with trouble in a race in which the entire field finished in a heap.
The nightcap offers a solid three-horse box with preference to #2 Saragani. He once was better than these and has trained well enough to win off the bench for Headley. #8 Genius is a class dropper worth considering for a tricky outfit, while #9 Amp and Adrenalin may lack a winning punch but will be closing well and won’t have to improve all that much to win.