Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., Jan. 25, 2013)

A carryover of $55,831 awaits Pick-6 players on a competitive Friday program.

In the opener, Won Won Oh Five looks well spotted for a big effort; the Dollase-trained colt is thoroughly genuine and consistent and retains Talamo, who knows him well. We’re expecting this son of Lawyer Ron to produce the last run. Tiz Dynamic just edged ‘Five when they met here late last month when pressing a soft pace; he has to be given a chance right back. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

Congregationalist was overmatched in starter’s allowance company last time out and today in the second race returns to the maiden claiming ranks. A repeat of his race before last will make him hard to beat. Prime Number drops to his lowest level ever while shortening up in trip and should have every chance to earn his diploma. On numbers, he’s a stick out. Both should be used in your rolling exotics.

Perfectamente has improving numbers for Sadler and with another forward move in today’s third race she’ll be in the thick of things throughout. She has a good stalking style for this Hillside Course, retains Baze, and continues to train well in the morning. Charm Catcher, a closing runner-up in a promising debut across town despite a rough start, has plenty of upside and should show it today. The McAnally-trained filly switches to Talamo, sports a bullet half mile work since raced, and could very well produce the last run. Miss Robyn, a solid runner up in a high priced maiden claimer in her debut, won’t have to improve all that much to win, though she’s clearly tackling a bit tougher today. Let’s go with Charm Catcher slightly on top while tripling the race in the rolling exotics.

The fourth race is a woefully weak affair; we’re going to single Twirlybird because if she doesn’t win, anybody can. The Carava-trained filly doesn’t really have a healthy pattern – she’s dropping a notch in class off a solid effort – but she likes this track and retains Krigger. Her maiden score during the autumn meeting, if repeated today, would be good enough to beat this group.

Valeria missed in a photo in a similar spot on New Year’s Eve and if she can run back to that effort in today’s fifth race she’ll be in the battle again. Gomez will have running on strongly late. Miss Communication, exiting the same race as Valeria and in the photo as well, was an unlucky loser and with clear sailing today should be along in time. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference to Miss Communication.

Ismene has trained like she’s fit and ready for Spawr and this unbeaten and ultra quick daughter of Tribal Rule will be hard to catch in the sixth race if she returns as well as she left. Quizzical has the benefit of a strong recent outing, retains Bejarano, and should be rolling in the final furlong. The edge goes to Ismene but we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

The seventh race is a wide open turf affair for entry level fillies and mares; we’ll try to survive using just two but you may find the need to spread. Miss Well Molded just beat a state bred group with a solid performance and legitimate number; there’s no reason she can’t be tough right back in open company. Smith stays aboard and the recent works are healthy. Miss Pippa graduated in just her second career start in gate to wire fashion over this course last April and then disappeared. She returns for Sadler with Gomez and a solid series of drills. If ready, she could be dangerous. Both warrant inclusion in rolling exotic play.

In the nightcap, Fireandesire has shown she can run a bit and a little will go a very long way in this below par maiden claiming elongated sprint. She gets off the rail and should be on or near the lead throughout. Nekomata adds blinkers for Puype and drops for the money run after chasing tougher on New Year’s Eve. She switches to Talamo and her recent works indicate improvement is likely. Sharp Bella lands the comfortable outside post while dropping to her lowest level ever. Leparoux should have her in an ideal pace prompting position. We’ll give Sharp Bella top billing while including all three in our rolling exotics.

Comments

Anonymous
Jan 25, 2013
at 12:07

twirlybird is a scratch

Anonymous
Jan 25, 2013
at 09:42

FWIW Twirlybird hasn't beat much. There seems to be more upside in Sugar Spice and maybe one or two others. Anyhow its raining today so its going to make things evern more unpredictable than usuall.

Anonymous
Jan 25, 2013
at 07:14

TWIRLYBIRD for me is going to win easy in 4th race unless something happen in the race like,jockey fell or slow start

Anonymous
Jan 25, 2013
at 01:38

I'm saying this respectfully and its just a personal critique. You have strong feelings in all of the early races, but in the fourth, you single twirlybird and quote " because if she doesn’t win, anybody can". Whenever is see this among quality handicappers and especially when you have strong feelings in races involved in the pk4 and pk5, etc. -- it always translates to "all button" for me. Yeah, maybe put an extra could tickets on twirly especially since hes the second morning line choice, but seeing as you don't mention the favorite and don't express as much positivity as I notice you do of others, it seems like a spot to gamble. As you see, Jeff, I appreciate your work and get something from it, even if I might disagree on a particular selection or choice. Thanks.

Anonymous
Jan 25, 2013
at 07:49

i do agree with JEFF in the 4th race that TWIRLYBIRD is going to win easy i think what he mean by "because if she doesn't win anybody can" if something happen in the race like if jockey fell,or bump at the start

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