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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Oct. 14, 2012)
There is a $207,540 Pick-5 carryover – that’s right, the Pick-5 – so make plans to get here early for a challenging Sunday program.
In the opener, #2 Sudden Sunday should like turf and has the pedigree to handle a mile, so we’re expecting this Bertrando filly to stretch out very nicely in this modest state bred maiden affair for fillies and mares. She continues to look good in the morning and very likely is much better than shown. #5 Spring Bloom has been a money burner in each of her last three starts but is a fit on numbers and really won’t have to improve all that much. Let’s give a slight edge to Sudden Sunday while using both in our rolling exotics.
#1 Candy Waltz exits a much better race and drops for the money run today. If he can avoid trouble from the rail, he should handle his rivals in today’s second race. #2 Muchos Besos is back sprinting where he probably is most effective and switches to Talamo. We’re expecting a much improved performance today from this Puype-trained gelding. We’ll give top preference to Candy Waltz while doubling the race in our rolling exotics.
#1 Hazardous, first off the claim for O’Callaghan and a dangerous Bay Area shipper, tries his luck on conventional dirt for the first time in the third race and should fit nicely with these despite the raise in class. His maiden win two back charts well with these and he’s lightly raced and eligible for further improvement. #4 Bubba Fizz drops to his lowest level ever, catches a weak field, and seems sure to make his presence felt. Preference goes to Hazardous but both should be used in your rolling exotics.
#1 Anytime ran okay on turf in his only prior outing and has plenty of room to improve. He might appreciate patient handling in today’s fourth race, a downhill turf sprint for for juveniles. Power Ped, a solid runner-up in his debut, joins the Richard Mandella barn and seems highly likely to improve. He’s bred to love turf as well. One Firm Cat, in the money in both of his starts, is another with enough turf breeding to anticipate improvement and should be a late factor. We’ll triple the race in our exotics and then press with Power Ped on top.
The fifth race is a poor maiden claimer and doesn’t have much to offer in the way of contention; we’ll go two-deep and hope that’s enough. Chloe W. surfaces for a tag for the first time and should improve a ton in this league. She’s a standout on numbers among the known element. Flashy Delight is a first timer from the Baffert barn and has shown enough in the morning to indicate she can be dangerous at this level.
The sixth race is a deep and contentious downhill turf sprint requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Kilted Tilt will be our top pick; she has plenty of upside while making just her fourth career start and her numbers continue to rise with every race. Espinoza should have her on or near the lead throughout. Deity comes off a solid third place effort vs. similar at Del Mar, has worked nicely since, and has run well over this course in the past. Lemon Hero is winless on turf but has some past efforts that make her a factor; she switches to Bejarano and could be set for a major forward move following a brief vacation. Minds Eyes won a race-shape aided maiden affair at Del Mar in her second career outing, so she has plenty of room for further improvement. Recent works indicate she’s going the right way. We’ll use all four in our rolling exotics and then press with Kilted Tilt on top.
The seventh race is borderline inscrutable; we’ll single Free Time by default but if you’d prefer to pass the race, go right ahead. Free Time drops to his lowest level ever and could be too quick for these. And in a race lacking in effective late speed, he just might be able to roll all the way to the wire under P. Val over a track that has been quite kind to front runners.
Shadow Runner knows how to win races. He’s comfortably drawn inside in today’s eighth race and probably is every bit as effective on turf as he is on any other surface. Pedroza rides him back after winning the Pomona Derby with this Machowsky-trained 3-year-old. Huntsville looked good winning a first level allowance affair at Del Mar on turf and a similar effort today puts him in the battle right back. You Know I Know has a huge look with a repeat of his sharp Del Mar score two runs back. He’s reunited with Bejarano and could be the most dangerous of the closers. All three should be used in rolling exotics with preference to You Know I Know.
Sugar Spice has trained better than the workout times would lead you to believe and looks very live in the nightcap, a very soft maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. The rail is a tough place to be for a first timer, so let’s just keep our fingers crossed and hope that she breaks. Can’tbeattheheat is another debut runner worth considering in a weak affair. The barn often cracks with big priced debut winners so we should use this filly on that aspect alone. The workouts have been decent. Mil Estrellas might be the best of the known element, but that’s not saying much. She’ll be part of the pace and may stick around for at least a piece of it.