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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., Oct. 12, 2012)
Due to yesterday’s rain, turf racing will be curtailed this afternoon (the seventh race remains on grass as of this writing). There’s a Pick-6 carryover of $37,823.
#3 Carrie Rose likes to run second and third a whole lot more than she likes to win, but in a very soft opener the Mitchell-trained mare should be a major player. She backs up to seven furlongs and will enjoy this extended sprint trip (in fact, it might be her best distance). #5 Include the Cat retains Talamo, returns to sprinting and is back on the main track. She’s another without much of a winning punch but she figures to be running on late and is worth using in the exotics.
#4 Sacred Ovation ran extremely well in his debut at Del Mar, missing by less than a length while earning a solid figure in a straight maiden affair. He surfaces in today’s second event for a high priced tag, has worked very nicely since his race, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. The Puype-trained juvenile appears very much like a logical short priced rolling exotic single.
The third race is off the turf and scratches have reduced the race to four. #4 Tornado Allie is clearly the controlling speed and looms a very short price following a sharp runner up try in a stakes at Pomona. She’ll be a single on most rolling exotic tickets.
#2 Green Team didn’t break well in his debut and lost position and then picked it up a bit late to split the field in a better than looked debut. He’s come back to train well since that race for Heap, switches to Talamo, and catches a very soft bottom rung maiden claiming field in today’s fourth race. He’s a rolling exotic single pretty much by default.
The fifth race is another off-the-turfer; we’re left with a field of five. #3 Drift King finds a reasonable spot to regain his best form after a two month freshening while returning to his winning level. Garcia should have him within striking range throughout. He’s our fourth short-priced rolling exotic single of the day.
#6 A Toe By Three takes another class drop in today’s sixth race while seeking his winning level. The Miller-trained gelding, in the money in his last five with consistently good speed figures, shows up for $40,000 today while retaining Nakatani, and should be part of the pace throughout. We like him as our fifth consecutive rolling exotic single.
As of this writing, the seventh race remains on turf (check for late changes); we’ll focus on the three inside starters in this competitive second level allowance affair. #1 Gab Power moves up a notch following a sharp Del Mar score with a nice number for Eurton and he has trained well in the interim while retaining Bejarano. #2 Causeithertz took a long time to break his maiden and has continued to improve ever since. He’s won under Flores in the past and should be within striking range throughout. #3 Silentio is undefeated in two starts for Gary Mandella, winning his debut last year and then coming back with a sharp effort at Del Mar. He’s a fit on numbers and the extra distance shouldn’t be an issue. Let’s give Gab Power a very slight edge while tripling the race in our rolling exotics.
There’s not much depth in the nightcap, a bottom rung maiden claimer, and we’re hoping to get by using just two. #4 Fast and Hard is a first timer with an okay work tab and should be competitive at this level. We’ll toss him in but prefer #6 Generations, adding blinkers today for Puype after a much improved third place effort in straight maiden company at Fairplex Park last month