Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Mon., Oct. 8, 2012)

A juicy $86,290 Pick-6 carryover adds considerable appeal to the Monday, Columbus Day, 10-race program.

#1 Hello Stormy flashed surprising speed in her debut and stuck around long enough to save second money in a pretty nice effort against a bottom rung maiden claiming field. She’s tackling a bit tougher in today’s opener but if she moves forward as expected – and leaves cleanly from the rail – the Bernstein-trained should pose a major threat. #2 Tiz a Daisy, a willing third in a similar spot at Del Mar, should be a late threat though her lack of gate speed might be problematic over a track that has been playing kind to speed. She’s a solid fit on numbers, though, and Flores knows her well. Let’s put Hello Stormy slightly on top while using both in rolling exotic play.

The second race is a modest claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies and maybe the best advice is not to get too involved. #5 Warren’s Venedalucy ran well at Pomona when second vs. similar last time out and if she can duplicate that effort on the big track she’ll be right there again. She shows good form here last winter. #8 Tip Your Hat, away for almost a year and returning cheap for Mitchell, has trained well enough to be fit and ready and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. She has plenty of zip and could be the controlling speed from her cozy outside post. We’ll give Tip Your Hat a slight preference.

#2 Gervinho was very impressive in his debut when rallying wide to produce a winning late kick in an abbreviated sprint at Del Mar while earning a nice number. He’s bred to move up a ton on turf and the added distance of today’s third race shouldn’t be an issue. The son of Unusual Heat continues to excel in the morning for Gaines and Bejarano stays aboard.

#5 Oscillator followed a maiden claiming win with a very sharp runner-up try vs. first level allowance rivals and in today’s fourth race she drops to starter’s allowance company. We’re expecting Hernandez to have her along in time. #6 Miss Lady Ellen is worth including as well; the Benchmark filly earned solid numbers at Del Mar and has plenty of room to improve for O’Neill in her first try over conventional dirt.

The fifth race is a restricted grass grab bag for mid-level claiming fillies; anything goes and you should use as many as you can afford to. #2 Warren’s Mo Money exits a series of tougher starter’s allowance races and lands a good inside post after a wide trip sprinting at Pomona. Her turf form last summer wasn’t bad and actually charts quite well with these. #6 Budidinha would seem logical if she wasn’t 1-for-29 lifetime and zero-for-11 on grass. She does, however, fit very well on numbers and she ran well under Pedroza when second in her last outing at Pomona. Maybe she has found her friends today.

#8 Dylan Donnelly, freshened since April when he was a very respectable third in the Snow Chief Stakes, returns to maiden company in today’s sixth race and has trained well enough to expect a good effort off the bench for Mitchell. Both of his races over this main track were pretty good. #10 Candy’s Jewel, away since last December, also is training in sharp style, lands Bejarano and looks very much like a live item for Hollendorfer. We’ll give the latter the edge – his numbers last year were quite strong – but include both in our rolling exotics.

The seventh race is another tough turf affair for claiming fillies and mares. If you can afford to, spread. If not, try to advance using #4 Malusita and #9 Elegant. The former has won nine races in her career so you have to respect her; if she can make the lead without pressure she can be dangerous. The latter likes to settle early and make a run and looks like the most dangerous of the closing types. Her Bay Area form was a bit better than the lines will show and Morey’s record with shippers usually is pretty strong.

#5 Ziva the Diva seeks her third straight win in the eighth race and the Bay Area invader fits very nicely with these on speed figures. She’s lightly raced and eligible to take another forward step at 10-1 on the morning line. #9 Twelve Folds may have been a bit rusty in her comeback at Del Mar but should be primed and ready for her best effort today. Never off the board in four career starts over the Santa Anita main track, she has plenty of zip and figures in the fray throughout. We actually like her on top. #10 Quizzical was a tad disappointing in a similar spot at Del Mar in her last race but Bejarano stays aboard and she continues to look solid in the morning. She’s another worth tossing in at 10-1 on the morning line.

In the ninth race, #5 Bares Tripper crushed restricted stakes fillies at Pomona last month and earned a giant figure in the process; whether she can duplicate that figure on the big circuit while stretching out and trying turf is anybody’s guess. She’s nicely bred, though, and in good hands, and is a “must use” in the exotics. #6 Flashy Ways was visually very impressive breaking her maiden at first asking for Baltas and did so with a respectable figure. She’s trained well since and could easily be this good. Both should be included in your rolling exotics; at 6-1 on the morning line Flashy Ways may deserve an extra ticket or two

The finale is a mess; we’ll take a stab with an educated guess in race in which the known element is pretty weak, so let’s try a fresh face. The Dave Hofmans-trained #1 Sultry Season is decently bred (Mizzen Mast), has worked better than the raw times would indicate, and lands Talamo. If she leaves cleanly form the rail, she could be gone, and at 5-1 on the morning line there may be some value here.