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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., April 1, 2012)
An enticing $256,115 double Pick-6 carryover awaits horse players on today’s Sunday program at Santa Anita. We’re not predicting it will carry over again, but it won’t be easy. Let’s give it our best shot.
The opener is a bottom rung maiden claiming router that lacks depth, with only five starters. #2 Broken Glass, 8/5 on the morning line and potentially lower than that at post time, finished a decent second in a similar spot last month and probably won’t have to improve much at all to earn his diploma. But he’s not the kind of short priced favorite you can trust. We’ll let him win.
The second race, a downhill turf sprint for $25,000 claimers, seems a logical spot for #1 Brown Is Beige to continue her winning ways for new trainer Mullins (36% with a flat bet profit with this angle). We could live with her morning line price of 9/5 but we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t end up lower than that.
The third race is a competitive high priced maiden claimer with three major players. #2 Put It There faced winners in his last two starts when matched with starter’s allowance company and today is properly spotted against what appears to be a considerably easier group. He’s a strong threat based strictly one numbers and switches to Bejararno. #3 Beau Royale is a first timer with a decent work tab and looks like a live item, though this barn hasn’t been winning with many debut runners lately. The son of Imperialism certainly is worth consideration in the exotics. The other Sherman entrant, #5 Tummel, is a seven race maiden and may be a tad tough to trust, but he’s a route-to-sprint play and has a few back figures that are better than par for this level.
The fourth race, a turf sprint for first level allowance 3-year-olds, begins the Pick-6 sequence and many tickets will have #1 Koast as a single. Highly impressive while recording a big number when breaking his maiden in mid-February, the Sadler-trained colt seems to have found a home on turf and deserves his 6/5 morning line price. #8 Best Trip also made an impressive turf debut over this course recently, storming home to win going away in a visually pleasing effort. He’s not as fast on numbers as Koast but certainly is eligible to make another forward move. We’ll prefer Koast but we suggest you save with Boat Trip if you can afford to do so.
State bred first level fillies and mare sprint six furlongs in the fifth race and we’ll need to go three deep to feel comfortable. #1 Trapper’s Bounty, first off the claim for Belvoir, adds blinkers for her local debut and the Tapeta-to-conventional dirt angle is in play with a mare who earned a career top 95 Beyer figure over the dirt at Pleasanton last summer. She lands Bejarano after sitting out her jail term and we’re anticipating a major effort today. Of course, she’s 8/5 on the morning, so we won’t be alone. #4 Mona Storm returns to dirt and has a legitimate look off her nice third place finish (beaten a neck) in state bred allowance company two races back. She’ll be doing her best work late. #7 Line One moves up a level for Puype after finishing third in a photo vs. $20,000 sellers last time out and with another forward move over a track she’s been known to like the 5-year-old mare could be tough to contain.
State bred fillies and mares occupy the sixth race, a mile turf event that might require a spread in rolling exotic play. The three that catch our eye are drawn outside. #6 Shezabigbroad, second off the claim for Mitchell, missed as the favorite in a similar spot recently but she’s back with Bejarano, who won with her two runs back and she’s a solid fit in the speed figure department. #7 Unusual Hottie was a convincing winner of a starter’s allowance race last time out and this lightly-raced filly more than likely has plenty more to give. Krigger rides her back for Sadler and unquestionably she’s our top pick in the race. You may also want to consider #8 Speedway Monkey, back on turf and a winner over this course at this distance vs. a useful group of maidens earlier this year.
The seventh race is a restricted (non-winners of two) middle distance affair for $12,500 claimers and there are few in here that are trustworthy. #4 Uzziah (1-for-24) returns to his claim level for Diodoro and ran well when second vs. similar two races back. He doesn’t really want to win, but at least he’s with his friends. #5 Jim’s Decision has a bit more upside (he’s making only his 10th lifetime start) and finished second at this level last month after holding a clear lead in midstretch. We’re not sure how much improvement he has, but he might not need much. These are the two we’ll prefer; feel free to go deeper if you think it’s necessary.
Today’s feature, the appropriately named Sidd Finch Stakes, (google it if you don’t get it) finds #2 Dewey’s Special listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, and the Mullins-trained gelding certainly appears to be the one to beat. He’s most comfortable on the front end but doesn’t need the lead to win; after coming up a tad short in his first start in nearly two years, the veteran gelding should have no such excuse today. Reportedly he has looked very sharp I the morning of late and switches to Bejarano while landing a good inside post. We’re seriously looking at him as a potential single.
The finale is a strong maiden special weight abbreviated sprint with two hot first timers, #8 Pretty Darn Quick and #10 Night Wind. Both have trained well enough to be very dangerous for capable outfits, and if you toss in the best of the known element, #11 Enduring Promise, you have a right to feel fairly safe.