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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., March 18, 2012)
The Sunday program will include no turf racing, and as this is penned the condition of the main track is unknown. There’s a strong possibility that the hard seal that has existed on the main track since yesterday will be cut open should management determine that additional rain during the afternoon is unlikely.
#6 Two Parts was listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite in the first before scratches, but with the late declaration of strong second choice #2 In High Regards (3-1) he’ll certainly go even lower. A distant third vs. maiden $40,000 sellers in his debut, the son of Olmodovor drops to the bottom today and faces four rivals, each of whom with dreadful form. Let’s pass.
The second race has another extremely short priced morning line favorite, #6 Frenemy (even money). He’s a first-time-for-a-tag play and has earned numbers considerably better than his modest opposition. From the Baffert barn and with Bejarano back aboard, the son of Friends Lake will be odds on and deserves to be.
With only eight races carded today, the Pick-6 begins with the third, an off-the-turfer for state bred 3-year-olds and up. #5 Dylan Donnelly, second in his last pair and with a good runner-up try over this main track two races back, seems like the logical favorite for Mitchell and may go lower than his morning line odds of 9/5. #6 He’s Very Rare has steadily improving figures but will be trying conventional dirt for the first time. The positive is that Rosario takes over so he probably should be included in rolling exotics.
The fourth race is a $25,000 middle distance claimer restricted to 4-year-olds. #5 Adam Suances stretches out for Vienna and exits a very fast, highly-rated sprint. Flores should have him on or near the lead throughout. #6 Warning Song drops a notch and faces his own group today so he’s certainly facing much easier foes and very likely will improve considerably. He switches to Rosario and stretches out to what probably is his favorite trip. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but preference must go to Warning Song.
The fifth race originally was scheduled down the hill; it’s on the main track now and there are five scratches off the program. Among those who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the switch in surface are #1 Anna You’re Up, a nice maiden claiming winner in her recent comeback for Mitchell and a fit on numbers; #6 Platinum Mine, a class dropper in the high percentage Mullins barn and with a dirt pedigree that makes her very intriguing; and #11 Big Tsimmis, second in her last three with rising figures for Carava and switching to Rosario.
Bottom rung claiming sprinters meet in the sixth race at seven furlongs and we’ll focus on two main contenders. #5 Deluxe Bus takes another drop in class and clearly has his issues, but he’s also won six out of 14 lifetime and his recent numbers are more than good enough to beat this field. Talamo knows him well and should have this son of Bluegrass Cat running on strongly late.; #6 Forward Commitment is a route to sprint play for his third start off a layoff and while his recent form looks dull he does retain Flores and has back numbers that would win.
The featured seventh race is the Santana Mile and looks like an ideal for #4 Gladding to get back on track. Burned up on suicidal fractions in the Big ‘Cap, the Sadler-trained gelding shortens up, tackles a much softer field and likely will catch a much softer pace scenario. A sharp recent half mile bullet blowout should have him on edge. #2 Tweebster stretches out for Baffert and has room to improve in this league, though it can be stated that he’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win.
The nightcap is a bottom rung maiden claimer and we’ll go two deep using the first timer #2 Tough ‘n Dangerous and the comebacker #3 Warren’s Rail Bird. The former has worked well enough to act at this level while the latter earned numbers last year that are better than par for this level.