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Jeff Siegel's Analysis for Friday, Feb. 5, 2010
Friday’s program doesn’t start out very exciting – we’re going to pass the first two races – but it picks up thereafter and there seems to be a few money making opportunities later on, especially in rolling exotic play.
The third race kicks off the Pick-6 and looks like an ideal spot for #4 Lady Alex to continue her winning ways. The John Sadler-trained filly just won a state bred first level allowance race and today tackles open company while retaining Bejarano. She’s got good tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead to win, and she figures to enjoy an ideal pace stalking/prompting trip. She’ll be a rolling exotics single on our tickets.
The fourth race is a maiden claiming mess and rolling exotic players may consider the “spread” strategy. The two that we’ll use – and go deeper if you can afford to – are #1 Silverado Gold and #8 Afleet Magic. Silverado Gold showed some spark when second in a similar affair in late December and should be closing well with bug boy Reyes riding him back. Yes, he’s an 11-race maiden and not really one to trust, but from his good inside draw he should enjoy a ground-saving trip and figures right there if he can turn in two alike. Afleet Magic stretches out again for Hess, retains Talamo and is a solid fit on speed figures. A repeat of his race before last – a good runner up try at Hollywood Park – makes him the one to beat.
Old timer #7 Bilo hasn’t won a race since the summer of 2007, so he’s overdue. The 10-year-old Bertrando gelding was beaten at even money in December at Hollywood Park but ran well nonetheless and performed very well over this Pro Ride surface during the Oak Tree meeting last fall. He can beat this bottom of the barrel claiming field on back class alone, and we’ll make him a rolling exotic single.
#11 Ziggy’s Stardust represents another rolling exotic single for us in the sixth race. The Maria’s Mon gelding earned a big number when third in a hot sprint opening day, has trained extremely well since, and looks all over like a route type for Hollendorfer. He’s drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer, but if he’s anywhere close to his 7/2 morning line odds he’ll represent extreme value.
The seventh race is a competitive conditioned allowance sprint and we’ll go three-deep using #2 Mobilized, #3 Patriotic Soldier; and #8 Total Bull and feel fairly comfortable about it. Mobilized returns to the main track, exits a good overnight stakes race and should very much enjoy this extended sprint distance. Bejarano should have him doing his best work late. Patriotic Soldier beat a state bred first level allowance field recently with a career top Beyer figure (94) and today tackles open company. On numbers, he’s a threat right back and Smith knows him well. We’ll also use Total Bull, beaten in a fast, highly-rated race last month at Santa Anita but working well since and switching to Gomez. He’s drawn comfortably outside and is the likely choice and one to beat.
Maiden claimers wrap up the eighth race, a seven furlong dash for bottom rung older horses. #11 Quick J Finlay launches a comeback – he hasn’t been out since September of 2008 – and has been working quite well for Gaines. Tyler Baze got to know him in a couple of morning workouts, and this El Corredor gelding looks extremely live in a soft spot. #13 Delago drops to his lowest level ever, has improving speed figures, and should be in the battle throughout. #14 Candy Coat, away since Del Mar, has worked solidly for his return for Sise and might be a better type this time around.