Jeff Siegel's Prime Picks for Sunday, March 1

The first four races on the 9-race program present very little in the way of wagering value. We’ll pick our spots today and concentrate on the final five events. In the 5th race, #5 Rare Nugget looks well placed for a repeat score. The Sadler-trianed mare was visually impressive beating a $25,000 non-winners of two field in January and has worked well enough since to indicate she’s ready for another big effort. This is an open affair, so depsite the lower claiming price this might be a tougher field than the one she just beat; however with Gomez riding her back she should be able to produce the last run. She’s our rolling exotic single for today. The 6th race is a modest maiden claimer and Sadler may have the one to beat in this event as well. #4 She’s All Rev’d Up finished an okay 4th of 13 in her debut after leaving from the rail and seems sure to produce an improved performance today for a barn whose second time starters usually move forward. Look for Rios to have this filly rolling late. #12 Jilona drops to a realistic spot, is a fit on speed figures, and shows a good recent work since raced. The 7th race is the featured Baldwin Stakes and I’m intrigued by #4 Dream of Kaylee. A very impressive maiden winner during the Oak Tree meeting, the Hess-trained colt failed at even money in an allowance affair in late December but could bounce back in his first try on grass. In a field without much early zip, he should be forwardly placed and have every chance to reproduce his best effort. He’s value at 4-1 on the morning line and might actually go a bit higher. #7 Flashmans Papers won the Eddie Logan Stakes over this turf course earlier this meeting and this trip seems ideal. He’s a “must use” in the exotics. In the 8th race, #7 Leavethegateopen exits a strong race for the level, lands the good outside post and looks every bit of an odds-on winner and a rolling exotic single. We’ll double the 9th race using the Abrams first timer #4 She’s Icy Hot and #11 Spirited Lady. The former is a first timer with okay works in a soft field and represents stranger danger at 15-1 on the morning. The latter is a class dropper in the Dominguez barn with a recent bullet work for her first start since November.